According to the update of the May 2014 Altagamma Consensus study, the company expects a growth in worldwide luxury goods consumption of about 6% for 2014, similarly to the results collected a year ago. This outcome results from merging together forecasts by 16 international analysts of the sector.

Armando Branchini, vice-president of Altagamma, and author of the study Consensus commented: “We expect an about +9% growth for Japan, +8% for Middle East, +7% for Asia, +6% for the Americas, +4% for Europe, while rest of the world will grow of about +7%. Accessories, jewels and watches will be performing better (+6%), to be followed by apparel (+5%). Moreover, the average EBITDA of companies for 2014 will be growing by about 7% more than in 2013."

According to the Altagamma Monitor on worldwide markets conducted in collaboration with Bain & Company and presented by Claudia D’Arpizio, the market will shift towards a stabilization and generally more mature consumer behaviors: in 2013 the growth registered was +6,5% and in 2012 +5%. D’Arpizio commented: “We are entering a new phase for the sector I would define ‘new normal”, as in the short-term period there have been no booming phenomena such as, for instance, China had years ago and at the same time an ability to react to crisis by mature markets that have given life to more stable and healthier growth trends by 4% and 6%.

Continues D’Arpizio: “Geographically, the US represent a renovated growth engine, while Europe is supported by tourists’ purchases, despite Russian purchases have significantly decreased both in the domestic market and in major capitals of the Old Continent. Japan is showing a consistent real growth especially because of the recent de-evaluation operations recently applied by its government. Not very dynamic is the performance of Greater China, while Hong Kong and Macau are registering positive performances. Not very brilliant is South Korea. South East Asia is strongly growing with Indonesia performing very well. Chinese consumers are always more relevant both in their domestic market and abroad (from Japan, Korea, Australia, South East Asia, the US and Canada) while Japanese get back spending in their own home market again.”

Referring to best performing categories accessories confirm themselves as the most dynamic category with an always more evident polarization between “absolute luxury” and “affordable luxury”. Speaking about channels, retail is the major driver for growth also thanks to the trend of buy-back and to the conversion of formats such as department stores, franchise and travel retail that are usually managed directly by brands.

Summing up, the market is always less tied to geographical aspects and always more lead by consumption fluxes and consumer segments influenced by tourism and fluxes of consumers are always more lead by value exchange fluctuations.